This blog is not a political statement and was written with my dentist friends and clients in mind, who are facing hikes on their supplies of over 20%, not 4% and must hear in the news that inflation is under control. What a joke! At the same time dentists are trying to figure out how not to raise their fees too much not to scare their beloved patients away, keep their employees during this qualified labor shortage and deal with unresponsive insurance companies. These guys are heroes. Hug your dentist the next time you see him or her, anyways I lost my train of thought. Ah, this article applies for most Americans, that is it. I am back on track.
It shows how misleading some of these numbers can be. If we look at the situation in Ukraine, one might ask “How do we separate wars from the economy? The answer is you don’t. This has nothing to do with your political affiliation, a little more about that soon, it has to do with history and the cost of wars, and we have not seen the real cost of this one yet, but we will. Just wait!
The next year Presidential election is likely to have major influence in the markets and the Presidential primary and debates will start within the next few months, as of right now we have over a dozen, you heard it right 12+ candidates from all parties and more likely to throw their names in the hat, a circus is coming to a town near you!
Elections matter, their results matter, policies matter, The Fed appointees’ matter, it all matters but as of right now what looked like a guaranteed recession has turned into a bull run! Go figure.
In advance of 2023, the recession drum beats were so loud it was deafening. Market pundits warned that as the Fed raised interest rates, it was just a matter of time before the economy entered a recession.
But it’s July now, and so far, no recession. It appears that the economy is slipping into an expansion rather than moving toward a recession.
The first quarter gross domestic product expanded at a 2% rate, and the job market appears in good shape. Meanwhile, the stock market, considered a lead indicator, rallied in the first half, catching some by surprise.
Those in the “just a matter of time before a recession” camp point to the yield curve. It remains inverted, with the interest rate on 2-year Treasury notes higher than on 10-year Treasury notes. Historically, an inverted yield curve has signaled a recession.
The accompanying chart shows that the current market rally has lasted roughly nine months, which is about the length of the market’s downtrend in 2022. While the Standard & Poor’s 500 remains well below the high, the downtrend and the uptrend are starting to look similar.
What’s next for the economy and the stock market? I can’t tell you; I don't know the future. But I can tell you what’s next for us is to remain focused on your investment strategy, which reflects your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. I am here my friends, call me!
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